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- Open the (Theatrical) Window!
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Open the (Theatrical) Window!
Well dear readers, I decided to stop myself from repeatedly logging on to check my 401k by instead engaging in even more self-destructive, demoralizing behavior: reading business analysis from Variety. Yes, I know it’s deeply sick, but I can’t look away.
I’m teasing somewhat, I value lots of Variety’s reporting, but it is an industry rag and as such will relentlessly toe the company line. The piece “Why the Theatrical Window Debate at CinemaCon Feels Hopeless” is no exception.
The tendency of some studios to release new films on digital platforms as soon as three weeks after they hit theaters continues to draw significant ire from those on the exhibition side, with Cinema United chief Michael O’Leary calling for normalized 45-day exclusive windows in cinemas.
Variety naturally doesn’t agree with theaters, stating “the debate over theatrical windows feels more desperate than productive.”
The ability for studios to take risks and make movies like “Mickey 17” hinges on those films making their money back by any means necessary, which means utilizing digital platforms early if they aren’t finding a big enough audience in theaters.
This is the crux of the Variety argument, that in order for studios to squeeze out all the available profit from a new movie, they have no choice but to quickly dump it onto digital PVOD. Even Wicked!
Universal’s global distribution chief… boasted that “Wicked” made $100 million on PVOD in addition to its nearly $475 million domestic haul in theaters. Universal revealed in Comcast’s last earnings report that “Wicked” became its best first-day and first-week release ever on PVOD when it hit its digital window at the end of December, following the theatrical release just before Thanksgiving. The film still made another $40 million in theaters in 2025.
$100 million on PVOD is indeed impressive, but what about this final line: “The film still made another $40 million in theaters in 2025.” Soooo… what would have happened if the theatrical window had been extended and people couldn’t watch it digitally? Maybe it would have made even more theatrically? Who can say!
The problem with Variety‘s piece (and the studio mindset it represents) is that yes, obviously on a per-movie basis, it makes sense to get as much value out of the release as possible. You don’t want to do a second round of marketing on a movie that already bombed.
On a macro level, however, what you’re doing is training your potential audience that they don’t need to go see a movie in the theater ever, because it is always just a few weeks away from being available at home. Why bother?
You want to build the habit of going to the movies, particularly with younger people. If you were a parent and you wanted to instill in your children the habit of brushing their teeth every night, you wouldn’t do that by brushing their teeth for them. That’s how my Aunt Joan scratched her stepdaughter Jean’s uvula! Now Jean has a weird voice!
Tech disruption should be complementing entertainment, not controlling it.
It’s the Games, Stupid
Speaking of getting people into theaters, the videogame-based A Minecraft Movie did big business over the weekend, surprising only people who have no regular contact with anyone born in the 2000s or later and leading to scenes like this:
@mothershipsg This viral scene from the Minecraft movie started a trend on social media where moviegoers shouted the phrase during movie screenings. #mi... See more
Tech reporter Mike Isaac offered his thoughts on why the film’s take was so big:
half-formed thesis on why minecraft was a blockbuster (and also concerns me for the future of movies)
for those not familiar, go look up minecraft movie reactions on tiktok and you'll get how insane it was in theaters
— rat king 🐀 (@MikeIsaac)
9:53 PM • Apr 7, 2025
I largely agree, and not just because I pretty much said the same thing last year:
The reason why some video game adaptations are successes with general audiences and others aren’t is pretty obvious: it’s the premise, stupid!
Unfortunately I think we’re about to see a glut of video game adaptations, chasing that Minecraft and Five Nights at Freddy’s cash, but at this point I’ll take anything different from superheroes and revivals of 80s franchises made for nostalgic millennials.
Kernels (3 links worth making popcorn for)
Here’s a round-up of cool and interesting links about Hollywood and technology:
The Switch 2’s groundbreaking in-game chat. (link)
Studio Ghibli can never be replicated by AI. (link)
The ongoing drama over the TikTok ban. (link)